When will Commerce for 7.x be more popular than Ubercart for 7.x?

The Ubercart and commerce modules are both growing in user base for Drupal 7. In April of 2011 I wrote about e-commerce for Drupal 7 at that time Ubercart had 900 sites on Drupal 7 while commerce had 500 sites.

Fast forward to January 2012 and commerce usage is 9,906 sites while Ubercart usage is 10,522.

Over the last 6 months the growth story is....pretty close.

See the raw data of this chart.

The question:

When will the Commerce module for Drupal 7.x report more users on its project usage page than the Ubercart module for Drupal 7.x for 3 consecutive weeks? And of course one of the outcomes is "never."

If the 3 weeks are over a breakpoint in the outcomes then the first day of the first week of the 3 week period will be used.

Outcome: 
before April 1, 2012: 0%. Bet $1 to win $560
after april 1, but before July 1, 2012: 13.4%. Bet $1 to win $6.47
after July 1, but before October 1, 2012: 18.8%. Bet $1 to win $4.33
After October 1, but before January 1, 2013: 67%. Bet $1 to win $0.49
on or after January 1, 2013 or never: 0.9%. Bet $1 to win $111
Closing date: 
Thursday, January 3, 2013 - 00:00

Comments

Michael Hofmockel's picture

The trends crossed with this reported use statistic. I want my coins!
October 28, 2012 19,146
After October 1, but before January 1, 2013: 67%. Bet $1 to win $0.49